Tomáš Rosa


Mathematical Epidemiology in Security Analysis

As can be shown, each and every infectious disease has its own inherent “epidemic code”, that drives its spreading mercilessly on the background of random fluctuations. The particular form of this code depends on the mathematical model used. In this lecture, we will study a typical epidemic code expressed as a system of ordinary differential equations. Besides understanding the epidemic principle in general, this form is especially suitable also for the purpose of strategic security analysis. It will allow us to explain the main qualitative aspects of infection spreading, such as the role of the basic and effective reproduction numbers, herd immunity threshold vs. vaccination, and countermeasures of the lockdown type. We will also investigate the non-pharmaceutical interventions in general together with the significance of equilibria, bifurcation phenomena, and the implications of endemic states.

The knowledge gained here can be applied in a broad spectrum of security, financial, and data analyses in general. While learning all these interesting theories and models, we do not necessarily have to focus on affecting how the states are managed during a particular pandemic situation. Similar to other natural events, neither epidemics seem to disappear from our world in the near future. Analogous to the weather forecasting, we do not have to strive for the change. It is, however, very useful being able to estimate how the conditions will be like.

Tomáš Rosa

Tomáš holds Ph.D. in mathematical cryptology with the Best Doctoral Work Award of his alma mater for the year 2004. He actively develops mathematical modelling as sort of a key to the information spread in data records of observable variables of many kinds. Natural application of this approach, as he has it, is the cryptanalysis using side and covert channels, where he gained notable results. His work helped to improve many world-wide standards, such as: PGP, TLS, EMV payment protocol, Bluetooth, and GNSS. Tomáš is the chief cryptologist of the competence centre of Raiffeisen Bank International group.